Gold prices rose on Tuesday as the dollar slipped and uncertainty over the outcome of the U.S. presidential election prompted investors to seek safety.
Spot gold closed at $1,909.09 an ounce, up $13.60, or 0.72 percent, after touching as high as $1,910.46 an ounce and as low as $1,886.91.
Gold futures for December delivery on the COMEX rose nearly 1.0 percent to close at $1,910.40 an ounce, the highest close in a recent week.
“The only thing driving the gold price is that the US election is likely to be messy because there is not expected to be a result tonight,” said Jeffrey Sica, founder of alternative investment firm Circle.
Although Democrat Joe Biden has been leading in national polls, the race is close in swing states. Because of delays in counting votes, results may not be known for several days.
Some polling stations in Kentucky and Indiana will close at 6 p.m. Eastern time, and all polling stations in those states will close an hour later. After that, there will be a regular voting shutdown stream, usually every hour, sometimes every 30 minutes. The final vote in Alaska will close at 1 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday.
Both states are expected to vote for Mr Trump’s re-election as President. Kentucky and Indiana received eight and 11 votes respectively in the electoral college.
“Gold will break through $2,000 before the (presidential) inauguration (January 20), which could be a record high,” Sica said, adding that gold would have strong momentum until a decision on the next President was made and then depend on further stimulus measures.
Gold was also supported by a weaker dollar as investors bet ona Biden victory that could inject a bigger stimulus into a U.S. economy hit by a novel Coronavirus.
As coVID-19 continues to rage, several European countries are once again on lockdown.
“The election result is likely to be positive for gold as the dollar is likely to weaken, new stimulus measures, interest rates are in negative territory and the Federal Reserve is likely to start buying longer-term assets,” Said Rhona O’Connell, an analyst at StoneX, in a note.
The Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day meeting on Wednesday.
Gold prices climbed to an all-time high of $2,072.50 in August, but have since fallen back as holdings in gold exchange traded funds have dwindled.
Fundamental positive factors
1.The United States holds its general election on Tuesday. The Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has a lead over President Trump in national polls, but the race is tight in several swing states and there are concerns that the results may not be known as of Tuesday night as it could take days to count the votes. Gold is now widely expected to benefit from stimulus measures regardless of who is elected, and it is likely to rise even more if Biden is elected because of the potential size of his coronavirus stimulus package.
- According to real-time Worldometers statistics, as of 1:41 p.m. Tuesday, novel Coronavirus confirmed 47.74 million cases worldwide, 418,819 new cases to 477,2849, deaths to 1.21 million, and 6,865 new cases to 1217,935. Novel Coronavirus confirmed cases reached 9.63 million in the United States, with an increase of 68,140 cases to 9635,683 cases, accounting for about one fifth of the global total. The number of deaths reached 230,000, with an increase of 876 to 237,870, accounting for nearly a fifth of global deaths. In an internal report to the White House, Dr Deborah Birx, an adviser to US President Donald Trump, said we were entering the most worrying and deadly phase of coVID-19, which will lead to increased mortality. Given the current situation, “tougher” measures are needed. The total number of infected people in Europe passed 10 million on Sunday, and several European countries, including Britain, France and Germany, have announced a new lockdown. A global surge in novel Coronavirus cases has heightened concerns about economic recovery and boosted the appeal of safe-haven metals.
Fundamentals negative factors
- Progress on a bailout deal has stalled over disagreements between Republicans and Democrats over how much money is needed to slow new infections in the U.S. and boost the sagging economy. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have not agreed on a response to the virus in recent months. McConnell said he hoped to resolve the issue “early next year,” with legislation “specifically targeted at struggling small businesses and hospitals dealing with the second coronavirus.” Pelosi said she expects Congress to “do something early on in the new President’s presidency.” The US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has said the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi has taken a “take it all or nothing” stance on the stimulus package. Mr. Mnuchin accused Ms. Pelosi of a political “gimmick” in implementing the stimulus plan. The lingering lack of a stimulus package weighed on gold.
- Data last week showed the Final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 81.8 in October, the highest reading since March. Us gross domestic product grew at a record annual rate of 33.1 per cent in the third quarter, against market expectations of 32 per cent growth, after falling 31.4 per cent. According to CNBC, the last post-World War II GDP record was a 16.7% jump in the first quarter of 1950. Claims for unemployment benefits fell 40,000 to 751,000 early last week, the lowest level since the week of March 14. Strong data in favor of the dollar, negative gold.
- If all goes well, the first batch of novel Coronavirus vaccines that are safe and effective could be available to some high-risk groups in the United States by the end of December or early January, said Paula Fauci, the nation’s chief infectious disease specialist and President of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, on Thursday. In a live chat on Twitter and Facebook, Fauci said Americans will probably know “sometime in December” if we have a safe and effective vaccine, based on the latest predictions from vaccine leader Moderna Inc and Pfizer Inc.
- Will Cai, a partner at Wilshire Phoenix, said the impact of the U.S. election could last from a week to a few weeks, but the outbreak Will not dissipate anytime soon, the economic response on behalf of governments and central Banks Will continue for some time, and gold is expected to remain a strong portfolio in the months and even years ahead.
- Phillip Streible, chief market strategist for Blue Line Futures in Chicago, said, “The market will be more volatile over the next 72 hours, so investors are looking to gold and silver as safe haven investments. If the outcome of the US election is not clear, we can go back to the $1940 level. “But whichever candidate wins, there is the potential for continued stimulus, central Banks are expanding their balance sheets and interest rates will remain low for an extended period.”
- “The only driving factor behind gold is that the US election is likely to be messy because there is not expected to be an outcome tonight,” says Jeffrey Sica, founder of alternative investment firm Circle. “Gold will break through $2,000 before the (presidential) inauguration (January 20), which could be a record high,” Sica said, adding that gold would have strong momentum until a decision on the next President was made and then depend on further stimulus measures.