The dollar maintained gains on Thursday, hitting an intraday high of 97.57.
The latest U.S. jobless claims data came in better than expected, following strong readings from the ISM non-manufacturing index and small non-farm payrolls, boding well for Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.
For now, the market turns to the non-farm payrolls report, due at 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, which is now expected to show a 162,000 gain in jobs in December.
Goldman Sachs sees solid U.S. employment fundamentals, combined with an expected rebound from the recent Thanksgiving holiday and winter storm season, leading to an increase in retail sales. U.S. non-farm payrolls are expected to record 185,000 for December, with the unemployment rate at 3.5 percent. The monthly average hourly wage rate is expected to be 0.2 percent and the average hourly wage rate to be 3 percent.
Beyond that, markets are also watching developments in the Middle East. In response to the downing of the Ukrainian plane, U.S. officials said Thursday that a Ukrainian Airways jet that crashed in Iran was most likely accidentally shot down by Iranian air defense systems. US President Donald Trump also said he did not believe mechanical problems caused the crash.
Citing an extensive assessment of satellite data, a US official said the government had concluded with high certainty that an anti-aircraft missile had brought down the aircraft. On the same day, Iran fired ballistic missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq.
The Ukrainian international airlines plane had been tracked by Iranian radar, the official said.
One of the officials said data showed the Boeing 737-800 had been in the air for two minutes after taking off from Tehran when it detected heat signals from two surface-to-air missiles.
The official said an explosion immediately followed near the plane. Then thermal data showed that the plane caught fire and crashed.
The plane was en route to Kyiv, killing all 176 passengers and crew, mostly Iranians and Canadians.
The crash occurred early Wednesday, hours after Iran launched a missile strike on a U.S. -led coalition base in Iraq, leading some to speculate that the plane might have been hit by a missile.
Iran’s civil aviation chief on Thursday dismissed as “illogical rumors” that a Ukrainian airliner that crashed near Tehran was hit by a missile.
“Scientifically speaking, it is impossible for a missile to hit the Ukrainian plane, and such rumors are illogical,” Ali Abedzadeh, head of Iran’s civil aviation authority, was quoted as saying by ISNA, the semi-official news agency.
Ukraine has outlined four possible scenarios to explain the crash, including a missile strike and a terrorist attack. Kyiv said investigators wanted to search the crash site for possible fragments of a Russian-made missile used by the Iranian military.
In addition, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau also said there is evidence that the Ukrainian passenger jet was shot down by an Iranian missile and that the shooting down of the Ukrainian plane may have been unintentional.
The British prime minister, Boris Johnson, echoed that sentiment, saying there was evidence of a missile downing of a Ukrainian airliner and that a full and transparent investigation was needed. There is extensive information suggesting that the Ukrainian plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile.
FXDailyreport has analyzed and predicted the trend of us dollar, euro, British pound, Japanese yen, and Australian dollar and given the operation strategy:
The dollar index extended its bullish trend, reaching resistance at 97.50 today. The index is likely to continue to move up and target its 200-day moving average. At the moment, there are no clues as to the next direction. Traders will watch the market’s reaction around the 200-day moving average.
The euro/dollar closed below its 200-day moving average, 1.1120 and trendline support. The pair seems likely to fall. However, as long as the euro/dollar closes above its 200-day moving average over the weekend, it has a chance to avoid a continuation of the decline.
When trading above the 200-day moving average, traders will add to their bullish positions.
Pounds per dollar
The GBP/USD range is between 1.3000 and 1.3250. The pair is currently testing the 1.3000-1.3050 zone, where traders can seek out long positions. As long as it doesn’t close out of that range by the end of the week, the exchange rate can continue its consolidation.
Dollar/yen completely reversed its short pressure to close above its 200-day moving average and 109.00 resistance. The currency continued its bullish pressure today and neared 109.70-110.00 resistance. Resistance tests appear to be coming soon and traders will again be watching market reaction around the resistance area.
Australian dollar/us dollar
There was no further market reaction after the Australian dollar closed below the 200 average. The pair is still waiting for clues about the next direction.