In early Asian trading on Friday, the dollar index maintained gains, with spot gold above $1,610 an ounce, after a rally of more than $20 on Thursday. Investors are bracing for a closely watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday night, with most forecasting the worst nonfarm report in a decade for march and the first negative nonfarm report since 2010. Morgan Stanley, a leading investment bank, even forecast a fall of 700,000 in March. In terms of global epidemic, the total number of confirmed covid-19 cases worldwide has exceeded 1.01 million, and the total number of deaths has exceeded 52,000. The cumulative number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States exceeded 240,000, setting a new record for the number of deaths in a single day.
Investors may usher in the first negative number in a decade
At 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, the us non-farm payrolls report for march was the biggest event of the week. Non-farm payrolls are expected to fall in March as they largely reflect data before the economic pause associated with a novel coronavirus.
The U.S. economy is expected to shed 100,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate is expected to hit 4 percent, according to a respected media survey. Morgan Stanley, a top investment bank, expects the U.S. economy to shed 700,000 jobs in March.
Wednesday’s “small nonfarm” ADP data had already given warning that nonfarm data could be negative. U.S. businesses shed 27,000 jobs in early march, before the economic freeze caused by the coronavirus reached its peak, according to a report released Wednesday by ADP and moody’s analytics. ‘this is the first decline in private-sector employment in a decade,’ said Mark Zandi, moody’s chief economist. ‘the total number of unemployed could fall by 10 million to 15 million.’ “The virus has ended 10 years of steady job growth,” zandi said on a media conference call.
ADP measures monthly changes in non-agricultural private sector employment, and those private small and medium-sized enterprises are the biggest victims of the economic slowdown caused by the outbreak, globally.
Data from the labor department on Thursday showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose nearly twice as much as expected to 6.648 million in the week ended March 28, from 3.28 million in the previous week to 3.5 million. The jobless claims report provides further confirmation that the us economy has been severely damaged by the outbreak of the coronavirus.
Notably, the march non-farm report is unlikely to give a full picture of the extent of the damage to the job market because it was released before the peak of the coronavirus outbreak.
While march nonfarm was the first to reflect the state of the U.S. labor market under a wave of business closures, the data mostly covered March 14, so it won’t be the worst for some time. Analysts say the bigger job losses are more likely to show up in the April jobs report, due in May.
Kathy Lien, managing director at BK asset management in New York, said Friday’s non-farm payrolls report would be the first to show a novel coronavirus. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to fall by only 100,000 because, like ADP, nonfarm payrolls were held on March 12. California did not issue its first statewide home ban until March 20, and it quickly spread nationwide in the days that followed. As of the end of March, millions of businesses in the us had closed, but lay-offs are likely to be delayed until the end of the month. As a result, we will not see the full extent of the damage until the revised figures are published next month, and the April figures will be bad.
How should non-farm payrolls be traded?
First, Lien points out, it’s important to remember that average hourly wages and unemployment rates are as important as employment Numbers. In addition to the expected 100,000 drop in nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.8 percent from 3.5 percent, and average hourly earnings growth is expected to fall to 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent. Dollar/yen is the most sensitive to these Numbers, but there may be other opportunities. If non-farm payrolls fall by 100,000 or less and the unemployment rate drops to 3.7 per cent or better, the dollar will rebound, but the rally should be short-lived as investors are sceptical of any good data. Selling the dollar/yen on the rebound should be the right move.
Lien argues that if non-farm payrolls fall by more than 100,000 and the unemployment rate rises as incomes fall, the dollar/yen should also be sold, but the extent of the decline will depend on the extent of the decline in employment. The weak non-farm payrolls data will also cause all yen and Swiss franc pairs to fall. Our preferred currency pairs will be euro/yen and Canadian/yen.
Spot gold held above $1,610 an ounce in early Asian trading on Friday. Gold rose more than 1 percent on Thursday as U.S. jobless claims hit a record high for the second straight week, adding to fears of economic damage from coronavirus and driving investors into the safe-haven metal.
Spot gold rose as high as $1,619.80 an ounce in Thursday trading to close at $1611.63, up $21.78, or 1.37 percent.
Analysts said a poor U.S. payrolls report tonight, Beijing time, could lead to more safe-haven buying in gold and further gains.
In a new article on Friday, Economies.com, a leading financial website, said gold’s success in breaking through $1,599.10 an ounce on Thursday has opened the way for gold to reach its next waiting target of $1,633.60 an ounce.
The bullish trend scenario will remain valid for some time to come, according to Economies.com. From the 4-hour chart, gold is above EMA 50, which supports bullish expectations. Gold above $1,571.20 an ounce is the most important condition for gold to remain bullish.
“We believe gold is likely to continue to play an important role in investor allocations in the coming months given the current turmoil,” ED&F Man Capital Markets analyst Edward Meir said in a note. Signs of continued economic weakness and increasingly aggressive stimulus measures by governments and central Banks should provide some support for gold.”
This spring, gold will have its best quarter of 2020, according to BNP Paribas. He expects gold to average $1,675 an ounce in the second quarter.
“The recessionary impact of the novel coronavirus crisis on the global economy suggests investors may continue to seek refuge in gold,” said Michael Sneyd, head of commodities economist and macro quantitative and derivatives strategy at BNP paribas.
The number of confirmed cases worldwide exceeded 1.01 million, and the number of deaths in the United States reached a record high of over 240,000
According to the latest statistics, the total number of confirmed covid-19 cases worldwide has exceeded 1.01 million, and the total number of deaths has exceeded 52,000. The cumulative number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States exceeded 240,000, still the most in the world.
According to real-time statistics from Johns Hopkins university in the United States, the cumulative number of confirmed covid-19 cases worldwide exceeded 1.01 million, reaching 1011490. The United States has the highest number of cumulative confirmed COVID 19 cases in the world, with more than 240,000 cases and 242,182 cases.
According to Johns Hopkins university, 1,169 new COVID 19 deaths occurred in the United States on April 2, bringing the total number of deaths to 5,926. It was the largest number of new deaths in a single day since the outbreak of COVID 19 in the United States.
The world health organization (who) director-general tandesay said on April 1 that the covid-19 pandemic has led to an exponential increase in the number of new confirmed cases worldwide in the past few weeks and that the number of confirmed cases worldwide will reach one million in the coming days, with more than 50,000 deaths.
Other major overseas countries, Italy COVID – 19 accumulative total of 115242 cases of the patients, Spain has confirmed 112065 cases, Germany has confirmed 84794 cases, confirmed 59105 cases of France, and Iran has confirmed 50468 cases, the diagnosis of 33718 cases, Switzerland has confirmed 18827 cases, Turkey has confirmed 18135 cases, Belgium has confirmed 15348 cases, the Netherlands confirmed 14697 cases, Canada has confirmed 11283 cases.
More than 92,000 cases have been confirmed in New York state, the epicenter of the outbreak. According to the latest news from Dutch media BNO newsroom, the New York state of the United States confirmed 8,669 new cases of covid-19 in the past day, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 92,381, 197 new cases of death to 2,373. Of those, nearly 52,000 have been confirmed in New York City. New York governor Andrew cuomo said Tuesday that the state’s outbreak may not peak for three weeks.
US President Donald trump told a White House news conference on March 31 that the next two weeks will be “very, very painful” and reminded americans to prepare for “tough days”. Mr Trump again warned on April 1 that it would be a “very scary few weeks” for the COVID 19 outbreak in the us from April 2.
US President Donald trump has tested negative for a novel coronavirus, according to a statement released by the White House on April 2.
US President Donald trump on April 1 approved a “major disaster” status for Tennessee due to COVID 19. So far, trump has approved “major disaster” status for 30 states, Washington, d.c. and the U.S. virgin islands, northern mariana islands, Guam and Puerto Rico.
The U.S. epidemic is still in the “first phase” of testing, and it will take a year to a year and a half for the vaccine to be developed.
Morgan Stanley, a leading investment bank, expects the number of COVID 19 deaths to increase exponentially in the us, making the April 30 target of lifting outbreak controls unlikely to be met. Morgan Stanley expects the number of covid-19 cases in the us to rise to 570,000 in the next 20 days.
Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University and former chief economist at Morgan Stanley, believes the outbreak will push the us economy into its worst recession since the second world war and that “this is a downturn that will be hard to get out of”.