In the Asian session on Monday (October 26), the DOLLAR index maintained its upward trend and is now at around 92.90. Spot gold continued to come under pressure, trading below the $1,900 / oz mark. Gold bulls have been disappointed by the impasse in US fiscal stimulus talks, leaving no catalysts for gold prices to rise, although pre-election uncertainty continues to provide bargain-hunting support. A recent surge in coVID-19 cases in Europe and the United States and the lack of progress on A U.S. fiscal stimulus plan have kept currency traders cautious, while the dollar index held firm on Monday, with a strong dollar a negative for gold.
The market is closely watching the progress of the US stimulus bill, the chances of passing it before the election are fading fast. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin traded accusations Friday that they should help move the talks forward.
Pelosi said Trump should push negotiations and get Republicans to agree to any deal with the White House on a nearly $2 trillion aid package. Mr. Mnuchin, the White House negotiator, said significant progress had been made, but accused Ms. Pelosi of stalling by refusing to compromise Democratic priorities.
White House economic adviser Scott Kudlow said Thursday that talks on a possible bailout deal were under way, but that the larger policy differences with Democrats were unlikely to be resolved in the election in less than two weeks.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Sunday that the Trump administration was reviewing the latest coVID-19 rescue plan over the weekend and that she expected a response on Monday — but there were few concrete signs of substantive progress in the standoff.
Investors’ fading optimism about a pre-election stimulus package is putting downward pressure on gold prices.
Gold came under bearish pressure, with prices falling below $1901.80 an ounce and trying to stay below that level, according to an article on Economies.com. After closing below $1901.80 an ounce on Friday, gold has confirmed it has broken below this key level and could fall further in the afternoon.
With the outlook for gold continuing to be bearish, gold is likely to head first towards $1,875.00 an ounce, with a lower target of $1,860.90, according to Economies.com.
Christopher Vecchio, senior currency strategist at I.G. Group in New York, said it was now unlikely that any new stimulus package would be announced before November 3. This will keep the market range-bound in the short term.
National Australia Bank (NAB) currency analyst Ray Attrill said hopes of a fiscal deal before the U.S. election were fading.
Most analysts are bearish on the outlook for gold this week
Analysts and traders are mostly bearish on gold this week, according to the FX168 weekly financial Market survey, released on Saturday.
Among traders and analysts surveyed weekly by financial markets, 55.6 per cent were bearish on gold, while 22.2 per cent were bullish and 22.2 per cent expected consolidation.
Atomic asset management (Hong Kong) co., LTD., founder and fund manager on Monday this week gold is expected to lower, “gold three consecutive weeks blocked in 1930 failed to break through the line, ETF last week also consecutive underweight, although the trend is still bullish, but short-term upside fatigue may have continued to adjust the risk, focus on 1850 first-line support, maintain prudent bearishness before the election.”
According to a Weekly gold survey released last week by Kitco News, investors should not expect the gold market to rise quickly as prices continue to consolidate around $1,900 in the near term.
Peter Hug, head of global trading at Kitco Metals, said: “There is one catalyst that could push gold higher ahead of the election and that is some kind of stimulus package. With each passing day, that becomes less and less likely. But the market is still waiting.”
Peter Hug pointed out that if there is stimulus by the end of the week, gold could break above $1,925. On the downside, support is still at $1,875, then $1,850.
Analysts also noted that market volatility is likely to increase as the U.S. election approaches.
Afshin Nabavi, senior vice President at precious metals trader MKS SA, said the coming week could be quite volatile as markets continue to forecast the election outcome. “Nothing is likely to change until at least November 3. Gold is stuck in this wide range, moving between $10 and $20 a day.”
Nicholas Frappell, global managing director of ABC Bullion, said he expected gold to test support at about $1,888 in the near future.
The coVID-19 outbreak in Europe and the United States has exacerbated key data in the United States this week
The dollar has held firm against a basket of currencies, supported by safe-haven buying following a recent surge in coVID-19 cases in Europe and the United States. The DOLLAR index is now at 92.87.
The global epidemic continues to grow, with the number of new confirmed cases breaking 450,000 globally. The third wave of coVID-19 in the United States has seen a major outbreak, while many European countries continue to suffer from worsening coVID-19. The number of new confirmed cases in France and Germany has broken records again.
According to the latest statistics, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally has exceeded 43.32 million. Eight countries — the United States, India, Brazil, Russia, France, Spain, Argentina, and Colombia — now have more than 1 million confirmed cases. The United States, Brazil, and India are the three countries with more than 100,000 cumulative deaths. In the United States, there have been nearly 8.89 million confirmed cases and more than 230,000 deaths.
“We expect the US economy to grow at a record annual rate of 34.5 per cent, helped by a rebound in consumer spending after stagnation and support for household incomes from higher unemployment benefits,” says Mr Knightley. More than 70% of unemployment benefit recipients earn more than they do when they work. Even after this impressive figure, it should be noted that economic output is still 3.2 percent lower than at the end of the fourth quarter of ’19.”
Other key U.S. data this week include new home sales on Monday, durable goods orders and conference board consumer sentiment on Tuesday, jobless claims and pending home sales on Thursday, and the PCE price index next Friday.
The European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Japan will also announce interest rate decisions this week. If the central bank signals further monetary easing, it is expected to provide some support for gold prices, analysts said.