In intraday trading on Thursday, financial markets were calmer, with spot gold falling slightly to around $1,585 an ounce. Investors will focus on the U.S. jobless claims data, which, if poor, could add to worries about the U.S. economic outlook. The resulting safe-haven buying could boost gold prices, while the dollar could sell off. In terms of the global epidemic, according to the latest statistics, the total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases has exceeded 930,000 globally, and the total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States has exceeded 210,000, which is still the country with the most confirmed cases in the world.
Focusing on the us jobless claims data, the most pessimistic forecast was 6.5 million
Investors around the world are waiting for this week’s jobless claims data after U.S. initial claims surged nearly 3.3 million on Thursday. That’s the key number investors need to focus on this week.
The data is due at 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits may have climbed to a seasonally adjusted 3.5 million in the week ended March 28, according to a survey of economists by respected media. Analysts said the labor department’s easing of application restrictions also contributed to the surge in claims.
Capital Economics expects it to climb to 5m. “Given the surge in claims to more than 3 million, which seems to be a small part of what some states, particularly California, are reporting, we expect unemployment benefits to surge to nearly 5 million,” said Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at capital economics.
Wells Fargo economist Sam Bullard said in a report that the data “may reflect newly unemployed workers and previous claims that states have not had time to record in the system due to strong demand.” He put the figure at 3.15 million.
Goldman sachs expects $5.25 million, citigroup $4 million. Thomas Costerg, an analyst at Bandque Pictet&Cie, put the gloomiest estimate at 6.5 million.
Data from the labor department last week showed the number of americans claiming jobless benefits hit a record high in the previous week as a result of the coronavirus crisis. The labor department reported last Thursday that initial claims for jobless benefits jumped to 3.28 million in the week ended March 21. That beat the peak of 665,000 in March 2009 during the great recession and the previous high of 695,000 set in October 1982.
The market is now paying more attention to claims for unemployment benefits than to the non-farm payrolls data because it is more timely to show the impact of novel coronavirus and social containment measures on the labor market.
Kathy Lien, managing director of BK asset management, wrote on Wednesday that the dollar’s dominance will be questioned in the coming weeks. Investors have been buying the dollar on the premise that the rest of the world will stay in recession longer than the us because there can be no global recovery without a us recovery.
In many ways, Lien said Thursday’s claims report will be more telling and more market-moving. The current forecast is 3.5 million, which sounds good, but the potential number could be much worse. Between March 23 and March 28, the agency received more than 8.2 million calls, compared with 50,000 in a normal week, according to the state labor department. Of course, many of these calls are redundant, but with so many requests coming from just one state, we can only imagine how many people will be filing for unemployment benefits nationwide. Thursday could be a bad day for the dollar.
Gold prices rallied on Wednesday as investors sought safe havens after bleak U.S. economic data added to fears of an economic downturn.
Spot gold rose as high as $1599.60 an ounce in midweek trading, and dipped as low as $1566.54 to close at $1589.85, up $13.49, or 0.86%.
An article on Economies.com, a leading financial website, said gold had fallen back after meeting solid resistance at $1,579.10 an ounce on Wednesday and at one point tested the $1,571.20 level.
As long as gold stays above $1,571.20 an ounce, its bullish view on gold will remain valid for some time to come, according to Economies.com. Once gold breaks through $1,599.10 an ounce resistance, the next target is $1,633.60 an ounce, warns Economies.com.
Gold prices are set for a sharp rebound as massive global monetary stimulus and unprecedented fiscal policy lead to a surge in prices, uob said in its latest commodity strategy report on Wednesday (1 April).
“We expect gold to rebound significantly in the coming quarters, rising to $1,650 in the second quarter, $1,700 in the third quarter, $1,750 in the fourth quarter and $1,800 in the first quarter,” said Heng Koon, head of market strategy at uob.
The singapore-based bank said all assets, including gold, were highly volatile in March. But after briefly falling below $1,500 an ounce, gold has rebounded and is poised for a big rebound.
The latest update on the global outbreak: more than 930,000 cases have been confirmed worldwide
According to the latest statistics, the global total number of COVID 19 cases has exceeded 930,000, and the total number of deaths has exceeded 47,000. The cumulative number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States exceeded 210,000, still the most in the world.
According to real-time statistics from Johns Hopkins university in the United States, the total number of confirmed covid-19 cases in the United States exceeded 210,000, reaching 213,372. The country with the most confirmed cases is the United States, with more than 210,000 cases, or 213,372. In Italy, the other worst-hit country, more than 110,000 cases have been confirmed. The total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in Italy has risen to 11,0574, with a total of 13,155 deaths.
On the evening of April 1, local time, Italian prime minister jose Manuel conte announced in a video speech that the closure of cities nationwide would be postponed from April 3 to April 13. He called on italians to continue to comply with quarantine rules or the country will again pay a heavy price.
Other major overseas countries, Spain has confirmed 104118 cases, Germany has confirmed 77981 cases, confirmed 56989 cases of France, and Iran has confirmed 47593 cases, the diagnosis of 29474 cases, Switzerland has confirmed 17768 cases, Turkey has confirmed 15679 cases, Belgium has confirmed 13964 cases, the Netherlands confirmed 13614 cases over the South Korea confirmed 9887 cases.
The covid-19 pandemic has led to an exponential increase in the number of new confirmed cases worldwide in the past few weeks, with one million confirmed cases and more than 50,000 deaths globally in the coming days, who director-general tandesay said April 1.
In the United States, more than 83,000 cases have been confirmed in New York state, the epicenter of the outbreak. According to the latest data from us media NBC, there were 7,917 new confirmed COVID 19 cases in New York state
83712 cases; In New York City, 4,300 new cases were confirmed, bringing the total to 47,439 and the total number of deaths to 1941. New York governor Andrew cuomo said Tuesday that the state’s outbreak may not peak for three weeks.
US President Donald trump told a White House news conference on March 31 that the next two weeks will be “very, very painful” and reminded americans to prepare for “tough days”.
Mr Trump again warned on April 1 that it would be a “very scary few weeks” for the COVID 19 outbreak in the us from April 2.
On April 1, local time, trump approved North Dakota’s request to declare a “state of major disaster” in response to COVID 19. So far, 30 states have declared a state of “major disaster.”
The U.S. epidemic is still in the “first phase” of testing, and it will take a year to a year and a half for the vaccine to be developed.
Morgan Stanley, a leading investment bank, expects the number of COVID 19 deaths to increase exponentially in the us, making the April 30 target of lifting outbreak controls unlikely to be met. Morgan Stanley expects the number of covid-19 cases in the us to rise to 570,000 in the next 20 days.
Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University and former chief economist at Morgan Stanley, believes the outbreak will push the us economy into its worst recession since the second world war and that “this is a downturn that will be hard to get out of”.