International spot gold three lows (September 9th), high hit $1948.53 an ounce, continuation of shock consolidation, astrazeneca’s vaccine trials appear problem, which makes the overall risk of emotional support, at the same time the dollar down and continue to tension between India and China, the situation of China and the United States, believe that within a certain period of time will provide a solid gold safe-haven boost. On top of that, the market is also watching to see whether a scaled-down version of the U.S. Senate stimulus package can be passed, which could have a big impact on sentiment.
Astrazeneca was one of the first drugmakers in the world to publish the results of a large trial of the novel coronavirus vaccine. The White House had been considering fast-track approval of the company’s covid-19 vaccine before the US election, according to people familiar with the matter. A spokesman for the programme said: “As part of Oxford’s ongoing randomised controlled global trial of coVID-19, our standard review process triggered the moratorium to allow safety data to be reviewed.” Paul Offit, an infectious disease specialist on the FDA’s vaccine advisory committee, said astrazeneca needed to test whether the serious side effects found were caused by an immune response to the vaccine or were related to the volunteers’ own medical history.
On the geopolitical front, Mr Trump this week reiterated his plan to “decouple” the US economy from China’s. China and the United States are at loggerhead over huawei and Beijing’s actions in Hong Kong, while U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials are preparing to order a ban on imports of cotton and tomatoes from China’s Xinjiang region because the production of these products involves forced labor. But the official announcement has been delayed. Add to that the tensions in the South China Sea, and tensions are rising between the two countries.
Meanwhile, border skirmishes between China and India have become increasingly worrisome. Indian government sources confirmed on Monday that Chinese and Indian troops opened fire during a confrontation near the Line of Actual Control (LAC) on September 7, the first time in decades that shots were fired at the border between the two countries. It was not clear if there were any casualties among Indian troops or the People’s Liberation Army and the situation was under control for the time being. But in the ongoing conflict between the two countries, China appears to be deploying strategic bombers near its border with India, according to the sina weibo official account of the central theater of the people’s liberation army. That makes the support for gold from geopolitical risk all the more obvious.
On a technical note, analyst Omkar Godbole said gold, which closed a cross on Tuesday, has defended its 50-day moving average, which it has been tracking, and now appears poised for a rally.
The cross is often seen as a sign of indecision in the market, emerging at key support levels and following a significant retreat from an all-time high of $2,075 to $1,900. Thus, the cross is a symbol of the exhaustion of the bear. Add in risk aversion in global equity markets and the path of least resistance for gold appears to be higher.
Gold traders were also unnerved by growing fears of a no-deal Brexit vote and dovish expectations of a monetary policy decision by the European Central Bank. In the absence of macro news in the U.S. on Wednesday, Sentiment on Wall Street will be a key catalyst.
Gold has risen more than 27% this year as central Banks around the world have built ona raft of unconventional stimulus measures to offset the economic damage caused by the novel Coronavirus pandemic. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.
“I hope the gold price keeps going down so I can buy more gold,” said Bill Baruch, President of Blue Line Futures.
Bart Melek, head of the commodity strategy at TD Securities in New York, said that while the dollar has room to rise, strong fundamentals will continue to support gold. He added that he expected gold to continue to hold support at $1,920.