In Asian session on Tuesday, the DOLLAR index was little changed at around 93.45. U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi set a deadline for a pre-election stimulus bill to be passed on Tuesday, but the deadline remains divided, adding to uncertainty about the stimulus talks and weighing on gold. In the current session, investors will focus on developments in U.S. stimulus talks, with gold prices likely to face further downward pressure if no deal is reached on Tuesday. In addition, from a technical perspective, if gold continues to trade below $1,900 an ounce, there could be more selling to come.
Gold prices closed modestly higher on Monday, but fell sharply from intraday highs as the White House and The US Congress remained at odds over the terms of the rescue package. Spot gold closed Monday at $1,903.89 an ounce, up $4.76, or 0.25 percent, after hitting an intraday high of $1,918.21 an ounce.
Gold’s rally stopped at around $1,920.00 an ounce on Monday before retreating and testing the $1,901.80 level, according to Economies.com, a leading financial website. If gold falls below $1901.80 an ounce and stays below that level, the outlook could turn bearish, according to Economies.com.
Spot gold fell sharply in Asian trading on Tuesday, losing ground to $1,900 an ounce and hitting as low as $1,894.39 an ounce.
Td Securities said on Monday there was a risk of another sell-off if gold fell below $1,900 an ounce.
BubbaTrading.com chief strategist Todd Horwitz writes that the overall pattern for precious metals has not changed. Both are still on a longer-term downward trend, which we expect to continue.
The “deadline” for US stimulus talks is drawing near
The Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi has set Tuesday as the deadline for an economic stimulus deal with the Trump administration before the election.
Pelosi and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin resumed talks Monday on a new coVID-19 stimulus package. Pelosi spokesman Drew Hammill said pelosi and Mnuchin “continued to narrow their differences” during the nearly one-hour phone call.
Hammill added that Pelosi has directed the House committee chairmen to work to resolve differences with the White House, and that Pelosi and Mnuchin plan to talk again on Tuesday. “Speaker Pelosi remains hopeful that by the end of Tuesday we will have a clear idea of whether we can pass a bill before the presidential election,” Hammill said.
US President Donald Trump said on Oct 18 that he wanted “more Numbers” than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had asked for.
Earlier this month, House Democrats voted to pass a $2.2 trillion plan. Mr Trump’s comments suggest he will back a proposal bigger than the $1,800bn he proposed last week.
The Trump administration and Democratic leaders are struggling to agree on a new coVID-19 stimulus package before the November 3 presidential election.
Us media have suggested that Ms Pelosi’s move to set the deadline was designed to put pressure on the Trump administration. Given the legislative process in the House and Senate, it would be difficult to reach a bill before the election if the two sides could not agree by October 20.
Even if the White House and Democrats agree on a new rescue package, it would be almost impossible to push it through before the November 3 presidential election because of time constraints, according to White House economic adviser Scott Kudlow.
Rodrigo Catril, strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney, said: “There is still no progress in the STIMULUS talks in the US, which darkens the prospects for a new round of support measures before the election. So it is hard to see an agreement before November 3, and markets are still thinking that another round of stimulus is coming, but at this stage it seems more likely to happen after the election.”
Kevin Grady, President of Phoenix Futures and Options, said gold price movements are directly related to the stimulus measures because gold is driven by inflation. ‘The more the government prints money, the more the dollar depreciates,’ he added.
Analysts said gold prices could risk further declines if a stimulus package is not agreed before the US election. And if the US stimulus bill is negotiated before the election, gold is set to rebound strongly.
In a gold survey released Friday by Kitco News, most Wall Street analysts and retail investors expect gold prices to move higher this week. Of the 16 analysts polled, 10 (63%) expect gold prices to rise; Two analysts (13 per cent) expect gold to fall this week; Four analysts (25%) said they expected prices to move sideways.
According to Commerzbank, gold is closely watching us stimulus talks, news of Brexit and an increase in coronavirus cases.