Spot gold was at $1, 659.30 an ounce in Asian trading on Wednesday. As risk aversion cooled in the short term, gold retreated sharply in the last session, closing down more than $30 and briefly trading just above $1,640 an ounce. Meanwhile, the fiscal stimulus package prompted a strong rebound in Wall Street, with all three major stock indexes soaring, with the dow closing up nearly 1,170 points. Also, crude oil prices surged, rising more than 2.5 percent in early trading on Wednesday.
Crude oil rose sharply on Tuesday after Russia said it would not rule out joint efforts with Opec to stabilise the oil market. Spot gold sold off as risk sentiment improved.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump proposed a 0 percent payroll tax rate during a meeting with Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Tuesday that would last through the rest of the year, a White House official told CNBC on Tuesday. The stimulus boosted U.S. stocks, and risk sentiment returned.
Gold fell more than 1.5 percent in the previous session, falling further from a peak of $1,700 in the previous session, as expectations of policy move around the world to ease the economic impact of the outbreak eased some investors’ concerns and helped stocks rebound.
‘we’re seeing some people selling a little bit less gold on the U.S. stock market after the big ups and downs of the last few days,’ said Michael Matousek, chief trader at U.S. Global Investors. When you’re trying to maintain a modest investment allocation, you need to sell a little gold and buy a little s&p, and that’s what you’re seeing. People are adjusting their portfolios.
Global stock markets and crude oil rebounded on Tuesday as signs of coordinated easing by the world’s major central banks to avert a global recession eased traders’ concerns. And US President Donald Trump has vowed to take “significant” steps to boost the economy. Japan also announced a second set of measures worth $4 billion to deal with the impact of the new crown pneumonia outbreak.
Mr. Trump on Monday floated the idea of a “payroll tax cut or reduction” to offset the negative impact of the coronavirus. Trump signed an $8.3 billion spending plan last week. However, administration officials told CNBC that the White House is not yet ready to roll out specific plans to deal with the recession caused by the coronavirus.
Despite the fed’s emergency rate cut last week, the market expects another cut at its March 18 meeting. Meanwhile, the European central bank, which meets on Thursday, is under pressure to help boost growth.
In addition, U.S. Treasury yields rose from historic lows and the dollar index rebounded after a sharp sell-off, further weighing on gold.
Treasury yields rebounded Tuesday, with 10-year yields hovering above 0.6% and two-year yields at 0.48%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note rose above 1 percent to 1.133 percent.
As U.S. stocks triggered a circuit breaker earlier this week, market analysts expect gold price volatility to gradually increase. Due to a sharp fall in the price of crude oil, making the market for inflation expectations also dropped sharply, so virtually or will make the actual interest rate expectations appear higher, thus for gold prices must be silenced, but since then the central bank further cuts if global scope, then in the case of real interest rates continue to lower, the price of gold will get a boost, market outlook is expected to market volatility will be more intense.
Charlie Fitzgerald, chief financial adviser and chief financial adviser at Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, fla.
In terms of overseas outbreaks, the world health organization (who) reported daily that the number of new pneumonia cases worldwide increased by 4125 to 113702 from the previous day. The number of deaths increased by 203 from the previous day to 4,012. The number of newly confirmed cases of pneumonia outside China increased by 4105 to 32,778 from the previous day. The number of deaths increased by 186 from the previous day to 872.
In Asia, Japan added 59 new coronavirus cases Tuesday, the highest single-day increase. The total number of confirmed cases of new pneumonia rose to 1,278 in the past few days, including those returning to Japan by cruise ship and charter plane. The total number of deaths in Japan rose to 19; As of Tuesday, 427 new cases of crown pneumonia had been cured and discharged in Japan. Meanwhile, 242 new cases of crown pneumonia were confirmed in South Korea on March 10, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 7,555.
In Europe, the number of new cases of pneumonia in Italy rose to 10,149, with 9,172 confirmed on Monday and 168 new deaths, bringing the total to 631. As of 19:00 local time on March 10, 1650 new cases of pneumonia have been confirmed in Spain. The French ministry of health reported that there were 372 new confirmed cases of crown pneumonia in France, bringing the total number of cases reported to 1,784. A total of 1524 new cases of crown pneumonia were confirmed in Germany, including 2 deaths.
In the us, as of 16:00 EDT on March 10, 36 states and Washington DC have confirmed new cases of pneumonia, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to at least 849 and 27 deaths.
Golden aftermarket outlook
Overall, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid unless gold falls below $1,633.60 an ounce and remains below that level, according to Economies.com. Once gold falls below $1,633.60 an ounce, this will push gold back into bearish territory, with the first bearish target at $1,599.10 an ounce.
“In addition to the uncertainty caused by the virus, the global impact of the oil price war will also support gold prices in the short term,” said FXTM market analyst Han Tan. “I wouldn’t be surprised if gold goes to $1,700 again. It will be triggered by signs of a further deterioration of the epidemic or the confirmation that we have from hard data that major economies are contracting under the weight of the epidemic.”
Todd Horwitz, the chief market strategist at BubbaTrading.com, wrote that the market was volatile and that once the panic subsided, gold prices fell almost as fast as they rose, suggesting a temporary peak. Gold is showing some weakness, but is still on a solid uptrend and should remain supportive. We expect gold to fall back to $1,640 – $1,650 and we will increase our position.
Chris Beauchamp, the chief market analyst at IG UK, predicts that if gold breaches $1,700 in the next few days, traders will target $1,780 in the near term, after which the long-term price is expected to be $1,924.