International spot gold (October 26) still trapped in the $1900 mark, the highest intraday hit $1908.20 an ounce, minimum hit $1890.19 an ounce, before the election in the United States to vote last week, the market overall mood have been very careful, in the absence of a fiscal stimulus agreement under the stimulus of the price of gold will not out of a narrow range. Concerns about the stimulus bill have gripped the markets, with talks once again deadlocked after reports that the two sides were close to a deal, and some pressure on gold prices is expected. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin traded accusations Friday that they should help push the talks forward, as the chances of a stimulus bill passing before the election quickly receded.
News of the Oxford coVID-19 vaccine eased market fears in Japan after British media reported that the Oxford vaccine produced a strong immune response among the elderly. British drug maker Astrazeneca confirmed the news, announcing that the vaccine, developed at Oxford University, produces an immune response in the elderly and the young, with adverse reactions even lower in the elderly.
Meanwhile, CNBC’s latest report says hopes are growing that the coVID-19 vaccine could be approved by the end of the year as drug makers and research centers race to help end the epidemic. “We will know by the end of November and the beginning of December whether the vaccine is safe and effective,” Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the BBC on Sunday.
On the geopolitical front, Japan and the United States began naval, air and land exercises around Japan on Monday. The “sword drill” is the first major military exercise since Yoshihiko Suga took office as Japan’s prime minister last month. Mr. Suga vowed to continue to strengthen a military buildup aimed at countering China. China says it has sovereignty over islands controlled by Japan in the East China Sea.
On a technical level, daily charts show gold consolidating below $1,900 and, more importantly, testing support at $1,890 again during the session. As things stand, gold’s correction has not been broken since its all-time high of $2,075 in early August, while $1,930 and $1,890 are now key resistance and support for short-term moves.
Also, it’s worth noting that the bottom of the triangle reached $1,899.15 an ounce this morning due to the compression of the triangle shape. After failing to break above a triangular high last week and stumbling lower at $1,931.00 an ounce, gold dipped below bottom today, a worrying development for the bullish outlook.
“While our basic view is that gold should rise during the U.S. election due to risk hedging, there is a real possibility of a sharp decline first,” wrote Jeffrey Halley, an analyst at MarketPulse.
Atomic asset management (Hong Kong) co., LTD., founder and fund manager on Monday this week gold is expected to lower, “gold three consecutive weeks blocked in 1930 failed to break through the line, ETF last week also consecutive underweight, although the trend is still bullish, but short-term upside fatigue may have continued to adjust the risk, focus on 1850 first-line support, maintain prudent bearishness before the election.”
Afshin Nabavi, senior vice President at precious metals trader MKS SA, said the coming week could be quite volatile as markets continue to forecast the election outcome. “Nothing is likely to change until at least November 3. Gold is stuck in this wide range, moving between $10 and $20 a day.”