At present, the number of confirmed cases in the world is increasing rapidly, including Japan and South Korea, Italy, and Iran. The vice President of Iran confirmed the diagnosis of new coronary pneumonia, which pushed the panic mood to a climax. Overnight, stocks tumbled again, with the dow falling nearly 1,200 points, its biggest drop ever. Asian stock markets opened lower on Friday as the dollar continued to come under pressure after a heavy fall and spot gold continued to consolidate just above 1640. Markets continued to track the global outbreak throughout the session, with data focused on the U.S. PCE price index, one of the fed’s favorite inflation measures.
Is the biggest worry about new Chinese diagnoses returning to the single digits outside China?
A total of 327 new confirmed cases, 44 new deaths (41 in hubei, two in Beijing and one in xinjiang) and 452 new suspected cases were reported in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and the xinjiang production and construction corps from 0:00 to 24:00 on February 27, according to the state health and construction commission. Meanwhile, 318 new cases (313 in wuhan), 3,203 new cases (2,498 in wuhan) and 41 new deaths (28 in wuhan) were confirmed in hubei between 0 and 24:00 on February 27.
According to statistics, between 0 and 24:00 on February 27, 327 new cases were confirmed nationwide, 318 new cases were confirmed in hubei (313 in wuhan), and 9 new cases were confirmed in areas other than hubei, which dropped to single digits for the third time after February 25 and 26.
The world health organization (who) is at a critical juncture in the global epidemic. The virus has no respect for national borders or RACES, and is not related to a country’s GDP or level of development. Who estimates that about 30 to 40 countries around the world are at high risk of the spread of new pneumonia.
Japan, South Korea, Italy and Iran are by far the most worrying.
South Korea has confirmed 256 new cases of coronary pneumonia, a total of 2022 cases and 13 deaths, according to the ministry of epidemic prevention of the central committee of the People’s Republic of Korea (rok). Of the 256 new infections, 231 came from the hardest-hit areas of daegu and gyeongsang north (182 in daegu and 49 in gyeongsang north) and six in Seoul.
As of 23:00 local time on February 27, Japan has confirmed a total of 919 new cases of coronary pneumonia, resulting in 8 deaths.
The itna news agency reported on the evening of 27th local time that 2 new cases of coronavirus were confirmed in dizfulur city of khuzistan province and 11 new cases of coronavirus were confirmed in mazandaran province. The vice President of qom medical university confirmed that two officials and 10 medical staff at the university had been diagnosed with a new case of coronary pneumonia, and he stressed to the media the need to set up a temporary hospital in qom, according to the irna news agency. A total of 270 cases have been confirmed in Iran, including 26 deaths.
In a further escalation, several senior Iranian officials have been confirmed to be infected with the new coronavirus. Iran’s vice President for women and family affairs, Masoumeh Ebtekar, confirmed infection with the new coronavirus on February 27. Iran’s former ambassador to the Vatican, Hadi Khosroshahi, has died of a new coronavirus.
Italy has confirmed 650 cases of the new coronavirus pneumonia in the past 24 hours, an increase of 250 in the past 24 hours, the country’s civil protection chief said in a routine outbreak briefing on Wednesday evening, CCTV reported. Of those, 17 died and 45 were cured.
The dow Jones industrial average plunged more than a thousand points, its biggest drop ever
U.S. and European stock markets closed sharply lower overnight as a new outbreak of coronary pneumonia spread around the world and the international monetary fund cut its forecast for global economic growth.
Investors fleeing risky assets sold stocks, sending major Wall Street indexes tumbling for a sixth straight day, while Treasury yields hit record lows.
Investors did not seem to buy President Donald trump’s comments that the risk of a new outbreak of pneumonia in the us was very low. The s&p 500 fell below 3000 for the first time since October, while the dow pared losses to less than 200 points before falling more than 1,000 points late in the day. All three major U.S. stock indexes fell into correction territory.
By the close, the dow was down 1,190.95 points, or 4.42%, its biggest drop ever, at 25766.64. The nasdaq fell 414.30 points, or 4.61 percent, to 8566.48. The s&p 500 fell 137.63 points, or 4.42 percent, to 2,978.76. All 11 sectors of the s&p 500 fell, while the fear index jumped 42% to 39.16.
Companies such as Apple, Nike and United Airlines have warned they will miss earnings and revenue forecasts because of the virus’s impact on their supply chains. Microsoft said Wednesday that the technology giant will miss its quarterly revenue forecast for its market segments, including Windows, because of the coronavirus.
Goldman sachs said us companies would not be able to generate profitable growth in 2020 because of the potential impact of the outbreak. Goldman lowered its 2020 forecast for basic earnings per share for the us from $174 to $165, or 0% growth in 2020, and lowered its 2021 forecast from $183 to $175.
“A more severe pandemic could trigger a longer period of disruption and lead to a us recession,” the Goldman sachs report added. Under that scenario, the s&p 500’s earnings would fall 13% in 2020.
It took just six trading days for the s&p 500 to go from a record high to a correction. That was the fastest decline in the s&p 500, according to deutsche bank.
“The pace of decline over the past week has surpassed even black Monday in October 1987, when the peak was hit in August 1987,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at deutsche bank, wrote in an email.
However, Chicago fed President Charles Evans said in a speech on Thursday that it was too early to gauge the potential impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the U.S. economy and adjust monetary policy.
“Unless we have more data and know what the outlook is, I think it’s too early to think about monetary policy action,” Evans stressed. But we are monitoring it very closely, and if we see something that does require an adjustment, I am sure we will give it full consideration.”
Asian markets opened lower on Friday, with Japan’s nikkei 225 down more than 3 percent, South Korea’s kospi down more than 2 percent and Australia’s kospi down 2.5 percent.
“Investors have made a u-turn in less than a week from the unshakable optimism we saw at the start of the year, from excessive optimism to outright pessimism,” said Michael Hewson, chief market strategist at CMC Markets.
Japanese brokerage giant nomura securities macro and quantitative analyst Masanari Takada said in a conference call on the 26th that there will be good news in the future. Until then, though, markets may face their darkest days.
“If investors really believe that the global economy is showing signs of a recession that is too severe, and sentiment shifts with it, then this could be the darkest day for equities,” Mr. Takada said. What happens after hitting the bottom? It’s a bounce, of course.”
The dollar also came under pressure as U.S. stocks tumbled, falling to 98.36 overnight, a level that continued to be tested in Asian trading on Friday.
Commerzbank analyst Thu Lan Nguyen said the fed’s rate cut expectations have strengthened, with U.S. rate expectations falling much more sharply than those in the eurozone, and whether the dollar falls further depends on the impact of a public health emergency on regional confidence and trade reflected in economic data.
Yukio Ishizuki, currency strategist at Daiwa Securities in Tokyo, said: “the dollar looks less safe if we are to deal with the spread of the disease in the us. There is some concern that the U.S. government is underestimating the outbreak.”
Spot gold rose slightly against a backdrop of sharp declines in U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar to close near 1640, and was under slight pressure in Asian trading on Friday, still rearranging earlier gains.
Daniel Ghali, the commodity strategist at TD Securities, said, “much of the recent rally has been driven by safe-haven flows that could move very quickly and be very difficult to absorb if sentiment changes.”
“Everyone has bought gold and is looking to sell, which is holding back further gains even as the equity sell-off continues.”
Goldman Sachs raised its gold forecast to $1,800 an ounce. The bank believes global epidemics, geographic interest rates and the us election will continue to drive demand for safe havens. The bank is targeting gold at $1,700 an ounce over the next three months and $1,750 in the near term over the next six months.
With further easing by central banks, including the us federal reserve, the gold market could test the $2,000 / oz mark, according to CrossBorder Capital.
Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors, said gold has room to rally in the short term and could return to 2011’s all-time high in the next 12 to 24 months.