On Monday, global financial markets feared a sell-off: Asia-pacific stocks fell, while us equity futures were also under pressure, with dow futures down more than 300 points. Stock markets in the Middle East plunged yesterday, with the Saudi stock market falling rapidly when it opened, down more than 7% in less than an hour. In terms of international oil prices, us WTI crude fell more than 7% to as low as $18.10 / BBL. Brent crude fell nearly 3 percent. Right now, almost every asset except the dollar is falling!
On Friday, U.S. stock indexes fell sharply after President Donald Trump threatened to retaliate against the coronavirus outbreak. Buffett admitted to misreading the airline at his Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, held online for the first time over the weekend, and said he lost money on all the airline stocks hardest hit by the new outbreak. Analysts believe that this seems to further aggravate the market selling sentiment. On May 3, local time, US President Donald Trump has the latest comments on the death of the new crown vaccine
Financial markets are bracing for the us non-farm payrolls report this week. This is the biggest economic number. Markets are anticipating what could be the worst jobs report on record. The U.S. economy is expected to shed 22 million jobs in April, a far bigger drop than the 800,000 jobs lost during the great recession. Unemployment could soar to double digits of 16.3 percent, which would beat the post-world war ii high of 10.8 percent set in November 1982. CIBC senior economist Royce Mendes said: “The April jobs Numbers are likely to be even worse as the real work stoppage only really started around mid-march.”
Black Monday in global markets? Almost every asset except the dollar is falling!
Local time May 1, Beijing time 2 early morning, the U.S. stock market closed down, nasdaq fell 3.2%, the dow lost more than 620 points. In addition to disappointing earnings from big tech companies and gloomy economic data, U.S. President Donald trump has threatened to retaliate against the virus.
All in all, on the night of April 30, mainstream media in the United States collectively reported that trump said he would retaliate against the new outbreak, and that he was considering options. Mr Trump’s comments put a sudden strain on bullish expectations for global equity markets.
Stocks have rallied recently despite mounting evidence that the coronavirus pandemic and social alienation measures are taking a heavy toll on the U.S. economy. Analysts at MRB Partners advise investors to be cautious. In a note to clients, they said the sharp rally in the stock market has exceeded fundamentals and that near-term conditions are likely to be disappointing.
Authorities in many countries are seeking to reopen their economies, but restarting them safely to near pre-outbreak levels will require a series of medical breakthroughs and widely available treatments.
Saudi Arabia’s stock market fell more than 7 percent in less than an hour after the Middle East market opened on Sunday and was still down more than 7.4 percent by the end of the day. And dubai, Egypt, Israel and other countries in the Middle East also saw a collective plunge in the stock market.
Oil producers in the Middle East have seen their revenues shrink sharply as a result of the market shock caused by the collapse in oil prices, analysts say. In the first quarter of this year, Saudi oil revenues were down 24% from a year earlier. With the global oil storage capacity running out and the oil price plummeting, the oil and gas industry as a whole will lose more than one trillion dollars. Negative oil prices may still make a comeback, and the market remains pessimistic.
Stocks in Asia and the Pacific suffered a broad sell-off on Monday, with South Korea’s KOSPI index falling 2.11%, Hong Kong’s hang seng index falling 3.04% and Banks generally falling. Malaysia’s benchmark stock index fell 2.3%. Taiwan’s weighted index opened down 2.97 per cent; Australia’s ASX200 index opened Monday at 0.74%…
In Hong Kong, heavyweights collectively tumbled, with Tencent holdings down 3.5%, the Hong Kong stock exchange down 2.6%, HSBC holdings down 3.5%, China ping a down 3%, and Alibaba down 4%. China Eastern fell more than 4 percent, while Air China, Cathay Pacific and China southern all opened more than 2 percent lower. The oil sector extended losses after the opening, with cnooc down 5.35 percent and PetroChina shares down 6.45 percent.
U.S. stock futures also fell, with the dow off more than 300 points at one point, and s&p 500 and nasdaq futures off more than 1%.
After novel coronavirus forced global economic activity to a near standstill, U.S. states allowed nonessential businesses to reopen and eased domestic orders in an effort to revive the economy, CNBC reported. Yet the 24-hour period from Thursday to Friday was the deadliest day in the United States, according to the World Health Organization.
“The next two to four weeks are critical for the economic crisis and the health crisis,” said Marc Chaikin, chief executive of Chaikin Analytics. “The biggest risk to the stock market is a premature reopening of the U.S. economy,” he said. If the upward curve of confirmed COVID 19 cases comes back and the economy comes to a standstill again, the damage to the spirit of the stock market will be enormous.”
Affected by the COVID 19 outbreak, the shareholders’ meeting was held for the first time in an online live broadcast, with Berkshire hathaway chairman and CEO warren buffett and the company’s vice chairman of non-insurance Greg Abel attending to answer questions from shareholders.
In response to a question, buffett said he had made an “understandable mistake” in valuing airline stocks, whose prices had fallen sharply because of the near-global travel halt caused by the new outbreak. At the same time, Mr Buffett confirmed that Berkshire had sold “all of its holdings” in the big four us airlines – American, delta, southwest and united.
“Yes, we’re going to sell not some of it, but all of it. If we change our mind, we’ll sell them all. If we had a change of heart, we wouldn’t do it half and half, we would go through it all at once, and maybe when we sold it, we sold it at a lot less than the purchase price, but the airline stock was always a big deal, so we sold the whole thing.”
Some analysts believe that, given the large number of investors believe in the “stock god”, which means that “black Monday” is about to attack the U.S. transportation stocks, and may even affect the entire U.S. stock market.
Notably, Mr. Buffett also confirmed that Berkshire stayed put in March and April, when stocks rallied sharply, because it didn’t find good investment opportunities. Despite its huge cash pile, Berkshire has yet to find an attractive company to buy. “We didn’t do anything because we didn’t think there was anything attractive to do,” he says.
Oil market: international oil prices fell again today, the United States WTI crude futures fell more than 7%, as low as $18.10 a barrel; Brent crude futures fell nearly 3%. WTI crude tried repeatedly to break the $20 mark on Friday but failed to hold up.
Notably, some liquidity providers have moved forward the expiration date of the June contract to May 1 and started trading the July contract today, resulting in differences between the platform’s offer and NYMEX’s main New York crude contract.
Spot gold fell below the 1700 level, the dollar index concussion higher, the day’s highest 99.35. According to the analysis, the global stock market sold off and the stimulus fund rushed into the us dollar for safety, which seems to return to the stage where almost all assets except the us dollar are falling again!
The latest! US President Donald trump’s comments on vaccines, deaths and other illnesses are set to startle the world this week
US President Donald trump said he is confident of a new crown vaccine by the end of the year, faster than even the optimistic predictions of his administration’s public health advisers, according to media reports.
“We are very confident that we will have a vaccine by the end of the year,” trump said. “We think we’ll have a vaccine by the end of the year, and we’re pushing hard.”
US President Donald trump attends a live broadcast of “America united: back to work” on fox news at the Lincoln memorial in Washington, May 3, local time. The comments were made in an interview with fox news at city hall at the Lincoln memorial in Washington.
“We are pushing supply lines. We don’t have a final vaccine, “Trump said. “I think a lot of companies are close,” he said. Trump mentioned the drug maker Johnson & Johnson by name. J&j, which has partnered with the U.S. Department of health and human services to produce the vaccine, said it hopes to get approval by early 2021.
Speaking at the oval office on April 30, Trump said the United States is rapidly developing a new crown vaccine, a project that will cost billions, mostly paid for by taxpayers, with the goal of having 100 million doses ready by the end of 2020. But U.S. health officials have repeatedly stressed that a vaccine will take 12 to 18 months to develop, meaning a new vaccine may not be available until late 2020 or mid-2021.
On COVID 19 deaths: U.S. President Donald trump estimates COVID 19 deaths at 75,000 to 100,000.
In an interview with fox news on May 3, trump updated his estimate for the number of COVID 19 deaths in the United States, saying it could be 80,000 or 90,000. “I used to say 65,000. Now I’m going to say 80,000 or 90,000.
On May 1, trump said he hoped the number of COVID 19 deaths in the United States would be limited to 100,000, according to comprehensive media reports. On April 27, it said the number of COVID 19 deaths in the United States could be between 60,000 and 70,000.
On nonfarm: as the economic toll from the spreading coronavirus continues to mount, trump is on his way to re-election in November. Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, U.S. unemployment has erased all the gains made during the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.
The us April non-farm payrolls report was released at 20:30 Beijing time on May 8. The market expects the us to lose 22 million non-farm jobs in April, which is far less than the 800,000 jobs lost during the super recession. Unemployment could soar to double digits of 16.3 percent, which would beat the post-world war ii high of 10.8 percent set in November 1982.
In the midst of the outbreak, nonfarm payrolls fell by 701,000 in March, ending the longest streak of job growth on record for 113 months, with most of the gains concentrated in places with high consumption of food services and beverages, close to levels seen during the financial crisis. The unemployment rate jumped 0.9 percentage points to 4.4% in March, the biggest monthly change since January 1975.
More than 1 million people have filed for unemployment benefits in Florida, according to the website of the Florida department of economic opportunity on May 3.
The state has received 1,025,657 claims for unemployment benefits since March 15, according to the website. The hotel industry was the hardest hit, with 115,313 unemployed hotel and restaurant workers across the state. So far, Florida has paid more than $700 million in benefits to the unemployed.
In an interview with fox news on May 3, trump said people who lost their jobs because of the new outbreak could find better jobs. “Honestly, you can get better jobs and make more money, and I think that will happen,” he said. Mr Trump predicted that the us economy would rebound in the third quarter.
On top of that, the big oil story: on Tuesday, May 5, the railroad commission (RRC), Texas’s top energy regulator, will talk about cutting production for the third time and may vote.