On Thursday (April 9) sub-session, the dollar index began to rebound, is now close to 100.20, the morning dollar index briefly fell below 100. Spot gold also remained strong, trading around $1,648 an ounce. Late Thursday, investors will welcome U.S. jobless claims data and comments from federal reserve chairman colin Powell, which are expected to spark volatility. Investors will also be treated to the OEPC+ conference, whose outcome will be crucial to the direction of oil prices. In terms of the global epidemic situation, the global total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases have exceeded 1.51 million, the total number of deaths has exceeded 88,000, and the total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States has exceeded 430,000.
The dollar has rebounded after a steep drop in claims data with Powell’s speech
The dollar index.dxy rebounded after falling to 99.99 in early trading to trade at 100.17. The dollar index.dxy strengthened on Wednesday, hitting an intraday high of 100.44.
The dollar has been keeping a close eye on risk appetite among investors and companies for a month as they flock to the world’s reserve currency, fearing the worst.
Now, some analysts are starting to focus on the long-term potential negative impact on the dollar of the massive stimulus measures being rolled out by the U.S. government and the federal reserve.
“If you think a novel coronavirus can be resolved by the end of the year… In 2021, we are going to have fiscal deficits, balance sheet expansion, and other measures to supply dollars — which is certainly a very strong backdrop for dollar weakness.”
Spot gold rose slightly in Asian trading on Thursday to trade around $1,648 an ounce.
An article on Economies.com, a leading financial website, said gold was consolidating above $1,644.20 an ounce. From the 4-hour chart, the random indicator is starting to generate positive signals, and we are waiting for that to continue the bullish trend, with the next major target at $1703.25 / oz. Unless gold falls below $1644.20 an ounce and closes below that level, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid.
Economies.com expects short-term support and resistance to gold at $1,635.00 and $1,680.00 an ounce, respectively.
Investors are bracing for a closely watched U.S. jobless claims report at 20:30 GMT on Thursday. Recent jobless claims reports confirm that the us economy has been severely damaged by the outbreak of the coronavirus.
Initial claims for jobless benefits are expected to be 5 million in the week ended April 4, according to a respected media survey. New claims for state unemployment benefits rose nearly twice as fast as expected to 6.648 million in the week ended March 28, labor department data showed on Thursday.
Weekly claims have been ignored in the past but are now even more important than the monthly non-farm payrolls report. The market is now paying more attention to claims for unemployment benefits than to the non-farm payrolls data because it is more timely to show the impact of novel coronavirus and social containment measures on the labor market.
At 22:00 Beijing time on Thursday, federal reserve chairman colin Powell will deliver a speech on the state of the us economy.
Federal reserve chairman colin Powell acknowledged in a media interview that the novel coronavirus pandemic had put unprecedented pressure on the U.S. economy, but said it could rebound well after that.
“We may well be in a recession, but on the contrary, the fundamentals of our economy are sound,” Mr Powell said at the time. He said the fed would not run out of policy ammunition,
The fed still has room for policy.
As recent signs of deterioration in the us economy become more evident, investors will be listening closely to Mr Powell’s latest speech to see if there is a shift in his attitude towards the economic outlook. If Mr. Powell becomes more pessimistic about the economic outlook, the fed could unleash more policy and keep interest rates low for longer, which would be bad for the dollar.
The U.S. economy, already battered by a novel coronavirus outbreak, has seen the federal reserve cut interest rates to near zero while pumping trillions of dollars of liquidity into the economy.
Early Thursday morning Beijing time, the federal open market committee on Wednesday released minutes of its March 15 meeting, at which the fed cut its benchmark interest rate to near zero.
The minutes reflect concern among fed officials about the impact of the coronavirus on the economy. “All participants agreed that the outlook for the us economy had deteriorated sharply in recent weeks and had become very uncertain,” the minutes said.
Don’t forget the OEPC+ meeting
The organization of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC), which includes Russia, and its Allies plan to hold an emergency meeting at 22:00 Beijing time on April 9 to discuss how to cut oil supplies to balance the oil market.
The meeting is widely expected to be more successful than the early march meeting. A meeting in early march failed to agree on an extension of production cuts, triggering a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
While Saudi Arabia, Russia and other OPEC members have said they are willing to return to the negotiating table, they have said they will agree to cut production only if the U.S. and other non-opec members join in.
Oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday after Algeria indicated it would agree to a massive cut of nearly 10 million barrels a day at an OPEC meeting on Thursday.
U.S. WTI crude for may delivery closed up $1.46, or 6.2 percent, at $25.05 a barrel. Brent crude for June delivery was up 97 cents, or 3 percent, at $32.84 a barrel.
Bjornar Tonhaugen of Rystad Energy is hopeful about the upcoming OPEC meeting.
Kim kwang-rae, commodities analyst at Samsung Futures in Seoul, said: “the focus of the market is still on the OPEC meeting and closely watching whether the United States joins the production cut. “The market is in a wait-and-see mode.”
“Oil prices are gradually stabilising and market expectations are based on a cut of 10 million BPD or at least close to 10 million BPD,” Harry Tchilinguirian, analyst at BNP paribas, told the Reuters global oil forum.
“The big question is whether countries such as Russia will accept us cuts in this way rather than force them,” ING said in a research note. If so, that would mean that cuts in the United States, which at this point appears to be the only kind of reduction the United States is willing to accept, would only trickle into the market. Mandatory cuts could mean no deal.”
Still, with OPEC expecting demand to fall by nearly 12 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2020, it is debatable whether a 10 million b/d cut would be enough to balance the market.
Update on the global outbreak: the total number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 1.51 million and the number of confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded 430,000
According to the latest statistics, the global total number of COVID 19 cases has exceeded 1.51 million, and the total number of deaths has exceeded 88,000. More than 430,000 cases of COVID 19 have been confirmed in the United States, which has the highest cumulative number of confirmed cases in the world.
Worldometers world real-time statistics show that the cumulative number of confirmed covid-19 cases worldwide exceeded 1.51 million, reaching 1513,243, and the cumulative number of deaths reached 88,403. Italy currently has the most deaths, with 17,669.
The United States has the highest number of cumulative confirmed COVID 19 cases in the world, with more than 430,000 cases, reaching 430,210, and a total of 14,736 deaths. The covid-19 outbreak has covered all 50 U.S. states, Washington, d.c., and extraterritorial territories.
US President Donald trump said at a White House press conference on April 8 that the number of new cases in the us is beginning to stabilize and he believes the us is “ahead of schedule” in controlling the spread of the disease. When the epidemic is on the decline, consider reopening the U.S. economy.
Mr Trump said he did not plan to give a date because he had been criticised for raising his hopes before Easter. When it comes to restarting the American economy, he will make his decisions largely on the advice of health experts. Work and labor must be resumed when the COVID-19 case curve is in the downward phase.
Mr Trump also said there was a good chance of not exceeding the expected number of COVID 19 deaths in the us. The us centers for disease control and prevention will issue guidelines later on Wednesday to ensure that key infrastructure workers are still able to work after being exposed to COVID 19.
In China, 63 new confirmed cases were reported from 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government) and the xinjiang production and construction corps between 0:00 and 24:00 on April 8, of which 61 cases were imported from overseas and 2 from guangdong, according to the latest announcement of the national health commission on Thursday. 2 new deaths (2 in hubei province); There were 17 new suspected cases, of which 16 were imported from abroad and one was local (one from heilongjiang).
As of 24:00 on April 8, according to reports from 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and xinjiang production and construction corps, there were 1,160 confirmed cases (176 of them severe), a total of 77,370 cured and discharged cases, 3,335 dead cases, 81,865 confirmed cases and 73 suspected cases. A total of 716,889 close contacts were tracked and 12,510 close contacts were still under medical observation.
Thirty-one provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and the xinjiang production and construction corps reported 56 new cases of asymptomatic infection, of which 28 were imported from overseas. On that day, 15 cases were confirmed (15 cases were imported from abroad); 32 cases (7 cases imported from abroad) were released from medical observation on that day; 1104 asymptomatic infected patients (364 imported from abroad) are still under medical observation.
Other major overseas countries, Spain COVID – 19 accumulative total of 148220 cases of the patients, Italy has confirmed 139422 cases, Germany has confirmed 113296 cases, confirmed 112950 cases of France, and Iran has confirmed 64586 cases, the diagnosis of 60733 cases, Turkey has confirmed 38226 cases, Belgium has confirmed 23403 cases, Switzerland has confirmed 23280 cases, the Netherlands confirmed 20549 cases, Canada has confirmed 19438 cases.
On the evening of April 6, downing street said Mr Johnson’s condition had deteriorated and he had been taken to intensive care. Britain’s acting prime minister, foreign secretary mark raab, said the government would continue its work.
At 17:00 local time on April 8, in the UK’s daily briefing on the outbreak, the chancellor of the exchequer sunak said that the health of prime minister Johnson is improving has been able to sit up and talk to doctors.
US President Donald Trump threatened on April 7 that the us would suspend its dues to the world health organization. A spokesman for UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres read out his statement to the media on Thursday when asked about his reaction to trump’s remarks. The statement said the world health organization must be supported, and that support for who’s work is crucial to the global fight against new outbreaks.
The number of confirmed cases is still growing and clearly has not yet peaked, said Gao li, China representative of the world health organization (who), at a press conference on the joint prevention and control mechanism of the state council on April 7.