International spot gold was trading at $1,556.60 an ounce in early Asian trading. Gold started the session slightly lower, hitting an intraday low of $1,557.90 an ounce. But overall, gold maintained its modest recovery from last week’s low of $1,540.10 an ounce.
Gold fell in early trading before a heavy risk event triggered. Recent market sentiment is mainly dominated by geopolitical risks. In addition to the need to keep an eye on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East this week, china-us trade will also usher in the signing of the first phase of trade and economic agreement. In addition, the us-DPRK relationship is also an important risk to be concerned about this week.
Circle Squared Alternative Investments founder Jeffrey Sica said that gold is the main catalyst of Iran the risk, the gold once last week rose above $1600 an ounce mark, so before Iran to launch a missile attack, a US base in retribution for the higher-order commander was killed in a drone attack in the United States, gold in political and economic turmoil is often seen as safe havens. As the us and Iran softened their positions in the second half of the week, gold fell 4 per cent.
Sentiment in the Middle East continues to get more mixed
As relations between the United States and Iran have become more strained, the surrounding situation has become more complex, which has mixed market sentiment. The response to the global uproar over the weekend over the Iranian military’s admission of an accidental error in shooting down a Ukrainian airliner could reignite risk aversion.
Meanwhile, relations between the United States and Iraq have become complicated. Last week, Trump said, “The United States has a very expensive military base in Iraq, spending billions of dollars to build it, and the United States will not withdraw until Iraq reimburses the money. “If Iraq does ask us to withdraw, then assuming it responds in a less friendly way, the United States will shift its strategy to the kind of sanctions it has never faced before, which will make the Iranian sanctions look relatively mild.”
On Thursday, the secretary-general of the Iraqi militia, the justice league, said he would respond to muhandiz’s death with an “earthquake scale” similar to Iran’s response to Suleiman. So this week, in addition to watching out for continued deterioration in the US and Iran, watch out for “seismic” retaliation from Iraq.
In addition, on Sunday, the Iraqi side again came out unexpected news, according to CCTV News, local time on January 12, the Iraqi people’s mobilization committee confirmed that the people’s mobilization organization “Karbala brigade” commander Saadi was assassinated in Baghdad. Saadi, who was traveling with two guards in Sadr city, north of Baghdad, was killed by unknown gunmen on the evening of November 11. The motive for the assassination remains unclear.
Us national security adviser Brian o ‘Brien said today that sanctions and protests were “suffocating” Iran and would force them to negotiate. Actually, I don’t care if they agree to negotiate; Don’t kill protesters without nuclear weapons.
US President Donald Trump on Saturday told Iranian protesters he stood with them and warned Tehran: “the world is watching.”
Trump approved U.S. economic sanctions against Iran on Nov. 10 in response to attacks on two U.S. military bases in Iraq. Mr. Trump said he took the preemptive action after “intelligence showed that Suleiman tried to blow up the U.S. embassy,” adding, “sanctions were ‘just’ approved, existing sanctions were ‘very severe,’ and now it’s been substantially increased.”
China and the United States will sign the first phase of the trade agreement
Aside from the Middle East, this week will be a critical time for the signing of the first phase of the US-china trade agreement. Current optimism about us-china trade is also weighing on gold prices. The big trade news this week will be the first phase of a trade deal that the United States and China are likely to sign on Wednesday.
At the invitation of the us side, Liu he, a member of the political bureau of the communist party of China central committee, vice-premier of the state council and Chinese leader of the comprehensive economic dialogue, will lead a delegation to Washington from January 13 to 15 to sign the first phase of the economic and trade agreement with the US side, said Gao Feng, spokesperson of the ministry of commerce at a regular press conference on January 9. The two teams are in close communication on specific arrangements for the signing of the agreement.
After 18 long months of negotiations, the signing of the first phase of the agreement is finally a sign of certainty.
China and the United States have previously gone through necessary procedures such as legal review, translation and proofreading, and communicated closely on the signing of the agreement. According to the statement of the Chinese side, through the joint efforts of the economic and trade teams of the two countries, the two sides have reached an agreement on the text of the first stage economic and trade agreement based on the principles of equality and mutual respect.
The signing ceremony will take place at the White House at 11 a.m. Wednesday. About 200 people, including representatives of major U.S. trade groups, will attend the signing ceremony.
President Donald Trump told ABC television on Thursday that the deal would be signed on January 15 or “shortly.” Trump first announced on twitter on December 31 that the deal would be signed on January 15.
Trump tweeted on Dec. 31 that he would sign a “phase I” trade deal with China on Jan. 15 while senior Chinese representatives were at the White House. Mr. Trump also said at the time that he would then travel to Beijing to start “phase two” negotiations.
Mr. Trump wrote at the time: “on January 15, I will sign the first phase of our very large and comprehensive trade agreement with China. The ceremony will take place at the White House. High-level Chinese representatives will be present. At some later date, I will go to Beijing and start the second phase of negotiations there!”
The US and China have agreed to launch a new semi-annual dialogue to promote economic reform and resolve disputes, the Wall Street Journal reported on January 11. The two sides will announce the new dialogue mechanism on January 15
“It is important to note more details about the deal itself when it is signed,” said Andrew Hunter, U.S. economist at capital economics.
“At this point, what we do know is that the bulk of the deal is the US agreeing to no more tariffs and China agreeing to increase its purchases of US agricultural products,” Hunter said. We are looking for more details on this. It is not clear when they will release the full text of the agreement.”
On us-DPRK relations, foreign media reported that the US wants to resume talks with North Korea.
According to the news website Axios, the US is said to have approached North Korea to restart diplomatic talks that stalled in October.
Robert O ‘Brien, the White House national security adviser, told Axios that Washington wanted to get talks with Pyongyang “back on track” and implement north Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s “commitment” to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.
The two sides have made little progress in talks to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.
U.S. national security adviser Brian o ‘Brien said contacts had been made with North Korea and that the U.S. wanted to continue negotiations held in Stockholm last October and get the talks back on track with the north’s commitment to denuclearizing the peninsula. Mr. O ‘Brien also said he was cautiously optimistic that Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s supreme leader, had not delivered on his promise of a “Christmas present”.
Robert O ‘Brien, the White House national security adviser, reportedly told Axios that the Trump administration had “reached out to North Korea” and asked them to resume diplomacy that had all but disappeared since October.
“We have reached out to the North Koreans and let them know that we are willing to continue the negotiations that took place in Stockholm in early October,” Mr. O ‘Brien said.
‘we’ve been letting them know through various channels that we want these [negotiations] to get back on track and fulfill Chairman Kim’s commitment to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula,’ Mr. O ‘Brien told Axios.
Mr. O ‘Brien said North Korea had “promised Christmas gifts”. The President suggested that he give him a vase. We didn’t get a vase or any other kind of Christmas present. That seems positive.
Mr. O ‘Brien added: “all we know is that we were told we were going to get Christmas presents and they didn’t come. So I think that’s an encouraging sign. But that doesn’t mean we won’t see some form of testing in the future.”
December’s consumer price index and retail sales will be the most closely watched of several key U.S. economic data releases this week.
Analysts said weaker than expected inflation and retail sales data could add to worries about the U.S. economic outlook, adding to the bearish tone for the dollar, which would boost gold.
Bart Melek, head of global strategy at TD Securities, expects prices to edge lower this week but remains optimistic about gold’s long-term prospects. ‘it’s still very likely that tensions will reignite, which would be good for gold,’ Mr. Melek said.
Melek said any disappointing economic data would have a positive impact on gold.
Geopolitical and trade concerns should continue to support gold as a safe-haven investment, with prices averaging around $1,600 an ounce this year, Mitsubishi ufj analyst Jonathan Butler said.