Spot silver was trading at $15.340 an ounce on Thursday. Silver surged to a high of $15.827 an ounce earlier in the week before falling back from that point, and is now extending its shock retreat to as low as $15.274 an ounce.
Underlining the extent of the economic damage caused by COVID 19, the IMF expects the world economy this year to suffer its worst downturn since the great depression of the 1930s as global crude prices continue to collapse and global stock markets weaken again.
Meanwhile, the dollar rallied on safe-haven demand amid growing fears that the damage to the global economy from the outbreak will be protracted, with continued risk aversion providing a strong floor for precious metals.
Overall, as fears of a global recession grow, central Banks and governments are taking turns to stimulate, and investors are buying up gold exchange-traded funds in a new frenzy, all of which are providing strong support for safe-haven assets such as precious metals.
As a result, for now, the market trend is still towards risk aversion, gold and silver and other precious metals are set to usher in a new outbreak.
In terms of the epidemic situation, the total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases has reached 2,083,304 globally and 644,089 in the United States. Worldometers world real-time statistics show that as of 11:10 Beijing time on April 16, the global COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases reached 2,083,304, the cumulative number of deaths reached 134,616, and the cumulative number of cured cases reached 510,350. The United States had the highest number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the world, with 644,089 cases, 28,529 deaths, and 48,708 cures.
Other countries, Spain COVID – 19 accumulative total of 180659 cases of the patients, Italy has confirmed 165155 cases, Germany has confirmed 134753 cases, confirmed 147863 cases of France, and Iran has confirmed 76389 cases, the diagnosis of 98476 cases, Turkey has confirmed 69392 cases, Switzerland has confirmed 26336 cases, Belgium has confirmed 33573 cases, the Netherlands confirmed 28153 cases, Canada has confirmed 28379 cases, Australia has confirmed 6462 cases, A total of 1,401 cases have been confirmed in New Zealand.
On the daily chart, the dollar index has rebounded modestly from its lows, the MACD green momentum column has slightly narrowed, and the KDJ random index has turned higher, indicating that the dollar’s rally momentum is restarting, and the next expected to continue a moderate rally.
On the 4 hour chart, the dollar index maintained a moderate rally, the MACD red momentum column slightly expanded, the KDJ random index moderately higher, indicating that the dollar short-term rally momentum is also strengthened, the next expected to continue to rise moderately.
On the daily chart, silver prices rose after a slight fall, the MACD red kinetic energy column slightly narrowed, the KDJ random index turned lower, indicating that silver retracting kinetic energy restart, silver prices may continue to fall from the high.
On the 4-hour chart, silver extended its pullback from the previous session’s high of $15.827 an ounce, with the MACD green momentum column unchanged and the KDJ random index falling further, indicating silver’s short-term downside momentum was steady and expected to extend its decline.
fundamentals Positive factors :
- According to statistics from real-time information and data update website world meters, as of 10:15 Beijing time on April 16, the global cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has exceeded 2.08 million, of which 2,083,304 have been confirmed and 134,615 have died and more than 130,000 have died.
- U.S. retail sales fell a record in March as a forced shutdown to contain the spread of novel coronavirus crimped demand for a range of goods, leading to the biggest drop in consumer spending in decades. Retail sales fell 8.7% in March, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, the biggest drop since it began tracking the data in 1992, after a revised 0.4% decline in February. The figure was below expectations and the consensus forecast was for an 8 percent fall.
- The New York fed’s manufacturing index plunged to -78.2 in April, the lowest level on record and worse than during the great depression.
- The global economy is on track for the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression this year as governments around the world grapple with the global crisis, the international monetary fund said on Tuesday. The IMF now expects the global economy to contract by 3 percent by 2020. In January, by contrast, it forecast that global GDP would grow by 3.3% this year. “The global economy is likely to experience its worst recession since the great depression this year, surpassing the recession during the global financial crisis a decade ago,” said Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, in the latest world economic outlook.
Fundamental negative factors:
- US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the us had passed the “peak” of the coronavirus outbreak. On Thursday he will discuss guidelines for reopening the United States. Now trump has canceled plans to set up a new task force to revive the economy and instead has held a series of phone calls with business leaders, according to two sources.
- German chancellor Angela Merkel said on Wednesday that her country would begin easing restrictions on its economy from April 20. Shops under 800 square meters can be reopened if measures are taken to “keep them clean”.
- On Tuesday, China’s exports fell 6.6% in March from a year earlier, lower than economists’ forecasts of a 14% drop. Imports fell less than 1 percent from a year earlier, below economists’ forecasts of a 9.5 percent drop. Risk sentiment returned after better-than-expected economic data from China.
- The head of the centers for disease control and prevention said on Monday that the United States is close to the peak of the outbreak. The outbreak in the United States is stabilizing and the number of COVID 19 cases in the United States is expected to begin to decline in the coming days.