Spot gold remained in a volatile range in U.S. trading on Monday, trading around $1,921 an ounce after hitting its highest level since September 21 at $1,933.19 an ounce earlier in the day. As last week, the new stimulus package in Congress and the ELECTION remain the focus of investors’ attention this week. On the global front, concerns about a local case in The Chinese city of Qingdao and the rapid growth of the epidemic in India, which is threatening to overtake the United States, have also raised concerns among investors that a new global epidemic has begun.
Good news from the U.S. Novel Coronavirus Bailout Bill. On Sunday, the Trump administration called on Congress to pass a novel Coronavirus relief bill streamlined to use surplus funds from an expired small business loan program. Despite criticism of the $1.8 trillion stimulus package from Democrats and Republicans in Congress, investors seem optimistic that spending will resume at some point. According to Fox News, a White House spokesman said Senate Republicans would agree to Trump’s request for a coVID-19 economic stimulus bill.
The people’s Bank of China’s latest move has hit the renminbi. On October 10, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced that since the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate has been floating in both directions based on market supply and demand, with greater flexibility, stable market expectations, orderly cross-border capital flows, stable foreign exchange market operation and balanced market supply and demand. To this end, the People’s Bank of China has decided to lower the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio from 20% to zero starting from October 12, 2020.
Analysts pointed out that the recent rapid appreciation of the yuan will reduce the cost of forward purchase of foreign exchange by enterprises, which will help increase the demand for foreign exchange purchase and moderate the rise of the yuan.
In a recent commentary, Jian-tai Zhang, chief Asia strategist at Mizuho bank, said the pboc’s move to cut the reserve requirement ratio for foreign exchange risk indicated a shift in its assessment of the renminbi outlook. Given Mr Biden’s lead in the polls, the us election could become a risk event for the renminbi to rise rather than fall.
Goldman Sachs also argued in its latest report that the pboc’s move to lower the reserve requirement ratio for the risk of a yuan move is an unwelcome sign of rapid appreciation and is in essence an easing of macro-prudential management, consistent with a more flexible and market-driven exchange rate target. The risk of “two-way volatility” in the short term has increased, but in the medium term (6-12 months) the renminbi is expected to strengthen.
Afshin Nabavi, senior vice President of MKS SA, said the market had been greatly affected by the U.S. President’s suspension of talks on stimulus a few days ago. But then they said there was going to be a massive stimulus, and everything changed very quickly. Nabavi, however, sees any drop in the gold market as a buying opportunity. “As the global economy continues to be affected by the pandemic, there is no reason for gold to fall. If there is a fall, it is an opportunity to buy on dips.” After gold breached $1,920 an ounce last week, the next key resistance level was the 1960 level, he said. The lower support is in the 1870-1880 region, where the level support is strong.
In addition to the stimulus package and us election news, the market is also concerned about the development of the epidemic.
A few new cases of coVID-19 infection have been found in Qingdao. As of 23:00 on October 11, six confirmed cases and six asymptomatic infected persons have been found in Qingdao, Shandong Province, all of which are highly associated with Qingdao Chest Hospital. The city of Qingdao announced on Monday that it will conduct nucleic acid tests on its more than 9 million people within five days.
After three asymptomatic coVID-19 cases were found in Qingdao on November 11, large-scale screening and classification tests were immediately conducted, with close contacts and relevant personnel from the city’s chest hospital as high-risk groups for key monitoring. A total of 377 close contacts and all hospitalized patients and paramedics in the Chest Hospital of The city were identified, including 9 new positive nucleic acid test results, including 8 hospitalized patients and paramedics in the chest hospital of the city and 1 family member of the patient. According to the expert panel, 4 of them were confirmed cases and 5 asymptomatic infected persons.
China’s National Health Commission (NHC) has sent a team to Qingdao on October 12 to guide the local epidemic prevention and control work, according to the NHC.
On the same day, Qingdao held a press conference on epidemic prevention and control. Zhang Huaqiang, deputy director of Qingdao Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said at the press conference that the confirmed cases in Qingdao did not occur in the community, but in hospital screening, and the cases were immediately transferred to designated hospitals for treatment, so the risk is small. No confirmed cases have been found in Qingdao. At present, The Loushanhou community where the chest hospital is located is classified as a medium-risk area in Qingdao, while the risk levels of other areas remain unchanged.
More the CDC warns a citizen, now living at the local, and intersection with the Qingdao asymptomatic infections travel path, especially since September 27, has been to Qingdao chest hospital, contact with hospital patients, have come into contact with the personnel staff, contact from recent entry personnel and the citizens of shibei district, Qingdao city, Qingdao city, please take the initiative to call the local all levels of the centers for disease control and prevention hotline, reported to the relevant situations to the community actively, can to medical institutions for nucleic acid detection, and according to the relevant prevention and control measures.
On the epidemic in India, the latest data released by the Ministry of Health on 12 October showed that the number of confirmed coVID-19 cases in India has risen to 7120,539. In the past 24 hours, 66,732 new cases were confirmed in India; There were 816 new deaths and a total of 109,150 deaths.
In terms of cumulative confirmed cases, the gap between India and the US is closing. The United States now has more than 7.7 million confirmed cases, making it the world’s largest. However, India has recently seen a faster rise in confirmed cases than the US, with an average of 50,000 a day, and the cumulative gap between the two countries is narrowing.
According to experts, the actual number of infected people in India may be much higher than the official statistics, because screening rates are lower than in many other countries in this vast country of 1.3 billion people. Several Indian medical experts fear the country will overtake the US as the world’s largest cumulative number of confirmed cases.