On Thursday morning, the dollar index remained strong, trading around 99.80, after briefly approaching 100 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, spot gold fell more than $10 on Wednesday to trade around $1,715 an ounce. Late Thursday Beijing time, investors will welcome U.S. jobless claims data, which has been closely watched and is expected to cause volatility. In terms of the global epidemic, the total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases has exceeded 2.08 million globally, and the total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States has exceeded 640,000.
Us jobless claims data hit the dollar can continue to strengthen?
A bleak U.S. retail sales report and a sharp drop in New York federal reserve manufacturing data sent the dollar higher on Wednesday as investors fled risky assets for safe-haven ones. The dollar index rose as high as 99.99 on Wednesday, but fell to close at 99.59.
Wednesday’s data underscored investors’ growing concern that the damage to the global economy from the coronavirus outbreak will be long-lasting.
Retail sales fell 8.7 per cent in March, the biggest drop since the data began to be tracked in 1992, after a revised 0.4 per cent fall in February, the data showed. The figure was below expectations and the consensus forecast was for an 8 per cent fall.
The New York fed’s manufacturing index plunged to -78.2 in April, the lowest level on record and worse than during the great depression.
U.S. industrial output fell 5.4 percent in March, the biggest monthly decline since 1946, as a new outbreak shut down a wave of manufacturers.
The dollar rallied on safe-haven demand amid growing concerns that the damage to the global economy from the novel coronavirus outbreak will continue.
“The dollar has been boosted by record weakness in U.S. economic data, which has dimmed the global economy and prompted investors to seek safer bets,” said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at western union business solutions.
The international monetary fund said on Tuesday it expected the global economy to contract by 3 per cent in 2020, the biggest decline since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, investors will be greeted by U.S. jobless claims data. Initial claims for jobless benefits are expected to be 5.5 million in the week ending April 11, according to a respected media survey.
New claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 6.66 million in the week ended April 4, above expectations of 5.25 million, from 6.648 million, labor department data showed on Thursday.
Initial claims are expected to remain in the millions for weeks as the effects of the coronavirus filter through the economy.
Analysts said the dollar could still rise further if Thursday’s U.S. jobless claims data performed poorly.
“Claims will be the most timely hard data to assess the extent of the recession and capture the start of the recovery,” Goldman sachs analysts said in a recent note to clients.
Gold crouches down just to jump higher?
International spot gold fell more than $10 to close around $1,715 an ounce on Wednesday, and touched a session low of $1,707.09 in the us. Panic selling appeared to be returning as us economic data came in weaker than expected, with a rush into the dollar and a drag on gold.
Gold prices fell a day after breaching seven-year highs on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened and investors took profits, but fears of a global recession provided some support.
Spot gold rose as high as $1,730.80 an ounce in midweek trading and fell as low as $1,707.09 to close at $1,715.87, down $10.61, or 0.61 percent.
Bart Melek, head of commodities strategy at TD Securities, said: “gold followed the stock market and the stock market sold off. This has led to volatility and, together with a stronger dollar, has prompted people to adjust their portfolios to cope.”
But the market is betting that the earnings season could reveal the initial impact of the outbreak on the economy, giving gold a chance to bounce back after a brief correction.
An article on Economies.com, a leading financial website, said gold remained near $1,715.00 an ounce. As long as gold stays at $1,695.00 an ounce, our bullish view will remain valid for some time to come.
Economies.com notes that random measures hit oversold territory on a four-hour chart, which supports bullish expectations. Now awaiting a return to bullish gold prices, the next major target is at $1,770.00 an ounce.
Despite Wednesday’s drop, commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch thinks gold could reach $1,800 by the end of the year.
“The severe impact of the global blockade on the economy and financial markets, the huge amounts of money being released by central Banks and governments, and the swelling sovereign debt all point to continued strong demand for gold as a safe haven and lifeline,” Fritsch said.
Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, said: “This is a small correction. Given where we’ve been in recent weeks, we’ve seen some profit-taking. Also, a stronger dollar isn’t helping gold. However, we still think there is some upside. So we are now targeting $1,800 and believe that the aggressive monetary stimulus from Central Banks such as the fed will continue to support physical assets such as gold.”
Globally, more than 2.08 million COVID 19 patients have been diagnosed in the United States
According to the latest statistics, the global total number of COVID 19 cases has exceeded 2.08 million, and the total number of deaths has exceeded 134,000. The cumulative number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the us exceeded 640,000, with the largest one-day increase in deaths.
Worldometers world real-time statistics show that as of 9:12 PM Beijing time on April 16, the global covid-19 cumulative confirmed cases of over 2.08 million, reached 2,083,033, the cumulative number of deaths reached 134,603. The United States has the world’s largest number of cumulative confirmed COVID 19 cases, with more than 640,000 cases, reaching 644,089.
According to Reuters, there were 2,371 new COVID 19 deaths in the us in a single day, a record increase for the second day in a row, bringing the total number of deaths to 30,817.
New York state is the hardest hit state in the United States. According to the latest data released by New York state on April 15, the total number of confirmed cases in New York state reached 213,779, with 11,571 new cases and 11,586 deaths in a single day, and 752 new cases in a single day.
US President Donald trump said at a White House press conference on April 15 that the number of newly confirmed cases in the us had passed its peak and that he would announce guidelines on restarting the economy on April 16. Mr. Trump did not provide details of the guidelines, but said he would release a statement in the afternoon of April 16 eastern time. Mr Trump wants some states to reopen their economies by May 1st.
Trump announced at a White House press conference on April 14 that the United States would suspend funding for the world health organization. Trump accused the world health organization of failing to share information on the outbreak, provide timely policy advice on prevention, and declare a “global pandemic”.
US President Donald trump on April 11 declared Wyoming a “state of major disaster” for the new outbreak. For the first time in U.S. history, all 50 states, Washington, d.c. and four overseas territories — the U.S. virgin islands, northern mariana islands, Guam and Puerto Rico — are in a “major state of disaster.” Being granted a “major disaster status” would receive federal aid and allow local governments to exercise emergency powers to protect lives, property and public health after a disaster.
David fauci, director of the national institute of allergy and infectious diseases and a member of the White House task force on the outbreak, said April 12 that more lives could have been saved if the government had acted early in the outbreak of COVID 19 in the United States.
In terms of the epidemic situation in China, according to the latest announcement of the national health commission, from 0:00 to 24:00 on April 15, 46 new confirmed cases were reported in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and the xinjiang production and construction corps. No new deaths; There were 4 new suspected cases, of which 3 were suspected cases imported from abroad (3 in Shanghai) and 1 was suspected local case (1 in Beijing).
As of 24:00 on April 15, according to reports from 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and xinjiang production and construction corps, there were 1107 confirmed cases (including 95 severe cases), 77892 cured and discharged cases, 3,342 dead cases, 82,341 confirmed cases and 63 suspected cases. A total of 722,007 close contacts were traced, and 8,484 close contacts were still under medical observation.
Other major overseas countries, Spain COVID – 19 accumulative total of 177644 cases of the patients, Italy has confirmed 165155 cases, confirmed 147863 cases of France, and Germany has confirmed 133456 cases, the diagnosis of 98476 cases, Iran has confirmed 76389 cases, Turkey has confirmed 69392 cases, Belgium has confirmed 33573 cases, Brazil has confirmed 28320 cases, Canada has confirmed 28205 cases, the Netherlands confirmed 28153 cases, Switzerland has confirmed 26336 cases, Russia has confirmed 24490 cases.
Who spokeswoman Margaret Harris told a news conference on April 14 that covid-19 had not yet peaked.
COVID-19 has a fatality rate 10 times higher than the 2009 H1N1 flu and is more likely to spread in crowded environments, such as nursing homes, who director-general tandeser said on April 13. Cases are doubling every three or four days in some countries.