Spot gold was trading at $1,618.10 an ounce in Asian trading on Monday. Gold had been trading in a fairly narrow range for some time, but it has now suddenly accelerated, dropping more than $20 from the day’s high to as low as $1612.50 an ounce.
Market analysts Joe Deaux and Yvonne Yue Li wrote that the spread between April and June futures contracts jumped to $20 an ounce on March 24, meaning it was much more expensive to buy gold in April than in June. This suggests that demand for gold bars will increase in the near term and that spot supplies will need to be available as soon as possible. By the end of last week, that had changed; The June contract was nearly $30 higher than the April contract, suggesting traders’ demand for physical gold has now subsided. Gold bulls will then need to watch out for a drop in physical demand to push prices down further.
Gold also fell in the previous session, but still posted its biggest weekly gain since 2008 last week as expectations of economic damage from the outbreak boosted the metal’s safe-haven appeal.
Phil Streible, the chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in New York, said the U.S. sell-off again weighed on all asset classes, leading to a series of margin calls on precious metals. Us stocks fell on fears about the economic damage caused by a flu pandemic.
Bob Haberkorn, the senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said gold is closely tied to stocks and that while it is a safe asset, people are reluctant to increase risk.
Credit Suisse said the main reason for the price rise was the federal reserve’s announcement of unlimited quantitative easing early last week in response to the economic weakness caused by the COVID 19 outbreak. We continue to believe that the medium-term framework for gold is positive (lower yields, a weaker dollar, inflationary pressures, etc.) and may cause near-term volatility due to investor illiquidity.
The global outbreak has accelerated to more than 140,000 cases in the United States
At present, the global covid-19 epidemic is still in an escalating trend, with the total number of confirmed covid-19 cases exceeding 720,000 globally and the total number of confirmed covid-19 cases exceeding 140,000 in the United States, which is still the country with the most confirmed cases in the world.
According to the real-time statistics released by Johns Hopkins University, as of 07:40 on March 30, Beijing time, the number of confirmed covid-19 cases worldwide exceeded 720,000, or 720,117.
Meanwhile, the total number of confirmed covid-19 cases outside China has exceeded 630,000 as of 10 am Beijing time on March 30. There were 142,328 confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States, 97,689 in Italy, 80,110 in Spain, 62,095 in Germany and 40,723 in France.
According to the world health organization, there have been 202 cases of COVID 19 in countries and regions. The next step is to keep an eye on the progress of the outbreak overseas, and any unexpected news could trigger sharp market fluctuations.
Golden aftermarket outlook
Retail demand drove up gold prices, which averaged $1,725 an ounce in the second quarter, standard chartered said. The next gold rally is likely to be driven by retail demand, and there are signs it is starting to pick up. We maintain that there is still upside upside to price risk unless we take profits, and expect an average price of $1,725 / oz in q2 2020.
Charlie Nedoss, the senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group, expects gold to rise further after the dollar index fell enough in June to test its 20-day moving average near 98.95. ‘the dollar has bounced off its lows and there was some profit-taking in gold late last week,’ he said. “In the longer term, I think gold will continue to push higher,” Nedoss said.
Kevin Grady, President of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC, said he remained bullish on gold for the coming week despite Friday’s correction.
Jim Wyckoff, the senior technical analyst at Kitco, also sees prices rising. “The charts are doing well and investors/traders are now buying with confidence, rather than sitting on the sidelines and hoarding cash in the face of recent heightened concerns,” Wyckoff said.
Adam Button, managing director at ForexLive, expects gold to rise as investors don’t have to sell to raise cash, as happened earlier this month when stocks plunged.
Richard Baker, the editor of the Eureka miners report, expects gold prices to rise. “As the us rapidly becomes the new epicenter of this terrible epidemic, economic and market uncertainty will push gold to $1,800 and possibly higher,” Baker said.
Rob Haworth, the senior investment strategist at Bank of America wealth management in New York, said gold volatility was likely to continue “in both directions.” “As central banks around the world raise their balance sheets to global financial crisis levels and beyond, there is ample liquidity and very low real interest rates to push gold higher.”
Writing by Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet, gold has recovered nicely after the last two weeks’ plunge and is now above the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracal level of $1606.60 / oz on the recent decline. On the weekly chart, spot gold has recovered above the 20 bullish moving average, while the technical indicators have seen a u-turn, with momentum bouncing from the mid-line and RSI back to positive territory.
On the upside, initial resistance to gold is at its weekly high of 1643.90, with further resistance at 1660. A breakout would give gold room to retest its multi-year high of 1703.18.
In the downside direction, the above Fibonacci level did not provide initial support for gold, more support in the 20-day average. A fall below that level would strengthen the case for the bears and see gold heading towards $1,500.